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Mounting apprehensions exist about the potential of armed conflict between Horn of Africa neighbors, the Ethiopian government and the Eritrean government, as confrontational discourse has ratcheted up in the last month.

What Has Ethiopian Officials Declared?

Ethiopia's, being landlocked, demands for entry to the sea coast through Eritrean territory has sparked a fierce rhetorical conflict.

The Ethiopian leader initially stated publicly in last year that his country's maritime access was an vital issue, comments that Eritrean authorities dismissed.

Diplomatic connections between the neighboring nations have often been tense. After a long-standing struggle for freedom, the Eritrean state, which has a long Red Sea coastline, legally broke away from Ethiopian rule in 1993, rendering it cut off from the sea.

Five years later, a border war erupted in which numerous people were killed.

Recent Comments from Ethiopia's Leadership

Prime Minister Abiy and army chief the army commander have publicly asserted sovereignty of Eritrean southern port of the port of Assab – approximately 60 kilometers from the frontier - and hinted at the desire to capture it through military means.

On 1 September, the Prime Minister said the country's "blunder" of being denied passage to the Red Sea as a result of Eritrean independence would be "corrected in the future".

The Ethiopian envoy to neighboring Kenya, ex-military officer Bacha, said that the port was "Ethiopia's wealth" and would be given back "through military action".

Eritrea's Reaction to the Claims

Despite ongoing threats from Ethiopian officials, Eritrea's reaction has been limited to short statements on X from Communications Head Yemane Gebremeskel.

He has rejected Ethiopia's push for sea access describing it as "dangerous" and a "negative policy" of "irredentism" – a policy of reclaiming previous domains.

Government spokespeople cautioned on mid-September that attempts to legitimise "obvious provocation" would have significant repercussions for the Ethiopian government and its regional partners and is a "redline that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Military Activities on the Ground

So far, there are no reports of major military movements in the frontier regions between the neighboring states.

However, in the country, state television has displayed training completions of numerous trainees at multiple army bases.

The director of staff section of the armed forces, Lt Gen Hachalu Sheleme, stated recently in an conversation that the army was in a "reliable position" as "many thousands of youths" were joining it, which he said was "a warning to our opponents".

Past Background of the Tension

For more than half a century from the late 19th century, Eritrea was ruled by colonial powers.

After the end of Italian rule, it was then administered by the UK forces before turning into a federated part of the Ethiopian empire.

However in 1962 the ruler terminated this system and Eritrea became totally absorbed into the Ethiopian state.

A thirty-year civil war occurred, finishing with the government's loss in the early 1990s. Sovereignty was then endorsed by Eritreans in a referendum in 1993.

Temporarily in the 1990s, there were friendly connections between the authorities in Addis Ababa and Eritrea's capital, but they fell out over the specific demarcation of their common border, causing war in 1998.

Even though this concluded in a peace deal in 2000, it was partially applied, and the neighbors continued at loggerheads.

This changed in 2018, when Abiy made overtures to Eritrea's leader Isaias Afwerki. The both leaders signed a declaration that the war was concluded – a decision that won the Prime Minister the prestigious award.

The both administrations were then partners in Ethiopia's 2020-2022 internal conflict in Tigray.

However diplomatic connections have later worsened anew.