A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in academia but hardly any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent official who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win here and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
