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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward script. It often serves as a form of mea culpa. Our apologies we misjudged your squad in our preseason predictions.

On paper, it's a direct path: the skipper who orchestrated the largest improvement receives the award. In reality, it creates an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring superior leadership or merely the greatest upset.

However this year's race is profoundly unique. The group of contenders is remarkably deep. It has been the season of comebacks. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning division winners fading and longtime underperformers improving collectively. In an normal season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in such a turbulent and fun season, he's up against several other elite coaches.

This is how the ideal ballot should be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters love quarterbacks. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you fix a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. In the right system, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his otherworldly ability. From Week 9, the Bears rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's sustained excellence. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become more decisive, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme rather than freelancing. It is an attack constructed solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that creates wide-open targets everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been capable to spin big plays from nothing.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive blueprint. Virtually every gamble – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who walked into the organization with the kind of pressure he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme wizard but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a typical season, he would be the overwhelming choice. But this is not a normal season!

The area where Johnson's case comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for sustained winning. However he comes up short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has engineered a rapid resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, he has excelled at the leadership stuff, which was not a given after his early press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed their staff with the ideal coaching blend of new ideas and experience, he hired first-timers. From the leader on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but frequently fails in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a new job on the fly. But Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.

After an early strong start, there was a possibility that the season would go off the track. A mid-year setback had the Jags stumbling once more. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking reliable ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen gets the tiniest knock in the standings because he took over a talented roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year argument has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different signal-caller and pairing him with an new play-caller might have derailed the season in October. Rather, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has regressed since that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the season, putting him only a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still